Fed Governor Waller Signals a Possible July Rate Cut Amid Central Bank Split

The Federal Reserve remains divided over the timeline for interest rate reductions, but one member is urging quicker action:

Fed Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that the U.S. central bank is positioned to begin cutting rates “as early as July,” arguing that inflation has cooled sufficiently and any rise in prices from new tariffs is likely to be temporary.

Waller emphasized that waiting for labor market weakness may be unwise. Instead, he suggested initiating a modest rate cut now and pausing if necessary—reflecting a proactive approach.

This stance diverges from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s more cautious perspective, which favors holding rates steady until inflation and economic data show more concrete signs of easing.

The divergence is underscored by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “dot plot,” which shows:

• 10 officials expecting two or more rate cuts in 2025
• 7 projecting no cuts
• 2 anticipating a single cut

With market indicators suggesting a lower likelihood of a July move and more anticipation for a September decision, all eyes are now on upcoming inflation readings, labor reports, and global economic risks—including tariffs and geopolitical tensions .

What It Means for You

• Borrowers: A July rate cut could reduce loan and mortgage rates sooner than expected.
• Investors: Easing could boost equities but might pressure bond yields.
• Consumers: Lower interest rates could mean cheaper loans—but might coincide with slower job growth.

Despite Waller’s push, the timing remains uncertain. The Fed’s next move will depend heavily on how inflation trends and global events unfold over the coming months.