Recent data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial jobless claims climbed to 248,000 in the week ending June 7—marking the highest level in roughly eight months. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose to 1.956 million, the most since the end of 2021.
Economists caution that some of this increase could be attributed to seasonal factors, like school staff filing during summer breaks. But the trend of rising initial claims and elevated continuing claims reflects broader labor market cooling, with hiring slowing and layoffs gradually increasing .
While jobless claims haven’t spiked dramatically, the persistent rise acts as a soft warning for the Federal Reserve. With growth slowing and inflation showing signs of easing, the Fed may have more room to consider rate cuts later this year—though it's likely to proceed cautiously.