The Labor Department just delivered a sobering update: from April 2024 to March 2025, actual job growth was nearly halved compared to past estimates. That means average monthly payroll gains fell from around 147,000 to closer to 70,000—one of the largest revisions in decades.
The job losses were spread across key industries like leisure and hospitality, retail, business services, and manufacturing. The correction hints at structural weaknesses that were hiding just beneath the surface of headline numbers.
Markets moved, but cautiously: the S&P 500 dipped, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dropped, and the dollar ticked up. Economists see this as a clear signal the Fed may cut rates sooner rather than later, even if future data softens the blow.
This huge revision isn’t just data—it’s a curveball for the economy. It rewrites the narrative on job growth and puts pressure on the Fed to act. Welcome to a reset, not just a downgrade.